Predictions

Marcus Du Sautoy is a Professor of Maths at Oxford University, and holds the Professorship for the Public Understanding of Science. He is running a competition; predict the outcome of the Premiership at the end of next season and you win £10,000. Free to enter. Sounds quite possible, doesn't it? But wait, the odds, if the teams could be considered as purely random, are over 2 sextillion to one. This is more likely than picking one second out of the entire lifespan of the universe.

Of course it is not entirely random, ie no-one expects Chelsea to come bottom of the table. So this all has connotations. What is possible in science is not actually possible in 'real' life. Also, I think, there are psychological points of interest here. If your average football expert was given 1000 goes at getting the Premiership right, he would be pretty confident at doing so. But the Professor says that even if 100,000 fans have a go, the money will probably be safe.

So, this means, I think you will agree, that humans have an inflated belief of how well they 'know' something. This is what keeps bookies in business. This could probably be transferred to all walks of life, ie how well we think we can judge people for example. Or maybe its subjective, ie some people would have a lower 'confidence rating' and just wouldn't have a go. But I think everyone has a belief that they know about some things, and that this belief distorts their perception of how valid that knowledge is. Mind you, if I win the 10 grand I will end up eating my words!